Every workplace leader eventually faces decisions that historical data alone cannot answer.
Should we close a floor? Do we need more meeting rooms? Can we accommodate future growth within our existing estate without compromising employee experience?
These decisions often involve significant financial investment, multiple stakeholders and consequences that can last for years. What makes them difficult is not only the scale of the decision, but the uncertainty that follows it. Historical workplace data can explain what happened yesterday, but it cannot, on its own, explain the implications of changing space, policies or workplace design.
As a result, organisations often find themselves making major workplace decisions based on assumptions about how people will behave, how demand may change and how the workplace will need to perform after change is introduced. Scenario modelling helps test those assumptions before they become commitments.
Testing decisions before they become commitments
At its core, scenario modelling is about reducing the risk of workplace decisions by evaluating alternative courses of action before change is implemented.
Rather than relying solely on historical reporting, it uses workplace behaviour, utilisation patterns and business objectives to evaluate how different decisions are likely to perform under different conditions. This helps organisations understand the likely consequences, opportunities and risks before decisions are made.
A workplace may feel overcrowded because attendance peaks are concentrated on particular days rather than because there is insufficient space. Meeting room shortages may be caused by the mix of room types rather than a lack of overall capacity. A floor may appear busy at isolated moments while remaining significantly underutilised across the wider week.
This is where assumptions can become expensive. Workplace decisions rarely involve a single perspective. Finance teams may focus on costs, workplace teams on employee experience, sustainability teams on energy reduction and business leaders on growth.
Scenario modelling creates a common evidence base that allows these competing priorities to be evaluated against measurable outcomes rather than assumptions. Organisations can compare possible routes, understand the implications of each and make decisions with greater confidence.
When average utilisation tells only part of the story
A US Top 20 university medical centre wanted to understand whether it could reduce its estate footprint without compromising workplace experience.
At first glance, the answer appeared straightforward. Occupancy data showed that offices and workstations were significantly underused, with average utilisation levels below 10%. Initial analysis suggested that much of the space could be consolidated.
However, average utilisation only told part of the story. Some spaces experienced sharp peaks in demand that headline utilisation figures could not explain. Meeting spaces, for example, showed highly variable patterns that average utilisation alone could not explain.
Rather than simply recommending the removal of space, scenario modelling evaluated different options and the trade-offs associated with each.
One option involved significantly reducing offices and workstations to increase average utilisation. Another retained additional capacity to absorb peak demand. A third combined space consolidation with workplace policy changes, such as introducing booking systems.
The exercise revealed that there was no single “correct” answer. Some approaches delivered greater space savings and higher utilisation. Others preserved flexibility and reduced the risk of overcrowding during busy periods.
Rather than prescribing a single answer, the model provided several evidence-based options and highlighted the implications of each approach before any commitment was made.
When meeting room shortages aren’t really about capacity
Meeting rooms are among the most common workplace complaints. Employees struggle to find available space and the immediate conclusion is often that more meeting rooms are needed.
In many workplaces, the issue is not a shortage of meeting rooms but a mismatch between room supply and actual demand.
In one OpenSensors workplace study, a meeting room designed for 24 people reached full capacity only 9% of the time, while the majority of sessions involved six people or fewer. Smaller meeting rooms showed a similar pattern, with between 88% and 94% of observed use involving just one or two occupants.
The findings suggested that the issue was not a shortage of meeting rooms, but a mismatch between room sizes and the way people actually met. This created opportunities to rethink room mix rather than simply add more space.
Rather than immediately investing in additional meeting rooms, organisations can use scenario modelling to evaluate alternative approaches. What happens if some larger rooms are converted into smaller two-to-four-person meeting spaces? What if additional phone booths are introduced? What if the balance between formal meeting rooms and collaboration spaces is redesigned?
Each option comes with different implications. Converting larger rooms may improve availability for day-to-day meetings. Additional phone booths may support focused work and informal conversations. Retaining larger spaces may preserve flexibility for occasional group sessions. Scenario modelling allows organisations to evaluate these alternatives before committing to refurbishment or redesign.
Better decisions before bigger commitments
The workplace projects that carry the greatest risk are not always those with insufficient data. More often, they are the projects where decisions are made before alternative scenarios have been properly evaluated.
Good workplace decisions are rarely about finding a perfect answer. They are about understanding the implications of different choices before assumptions become commitments.
Scenario modelling sits at the centre of the Measure, Model, Transform (MMT) Framework, helping organisations evaluate options before committing time, budget and resources.
Whether you are considering space consolidation, redesign, hybrid working policies or portfolio optimisation, scenario modelling can help you understand the implications, test assumptions and make decisions with greater confidence.
Planning your next workplace transformation?
Get in touch to learn how workplace data and scenario modelling can support clearer, lower-risk workplace decisions.
